Road to Louisville: Part II
The "Hot Shots! Part Deux" of analyzing the 2024 Texas volleyball schedule
It’s finally (or perhaps already?) July, and with the calendar turning the page to the back half of the year, we’ve seen tectonic shifts in the landscape of college athletics. As of this past Monday, four Pac-12 teams have moved to the Big Ten. Four more of them hopped on a life raft destined for the Big 12 conference, at least until commissioner Brett Yormark crashes the whole thing into the pier. The two nerds of the group, Stanford and Cal, are now big-brain members of the [checks notes] Atlantic Coast Conference.
The most interesting development in this most recent round of conference realignment is of course Texas and Oklahoma’s joint move from the Big 12 to the SEC. Never ones to miss out on an opportunity to flex some capitalism on the world, the Mouse made sure to commemorate the event at both schools, granting them an opportunity to “takeover” the SEC Network for a full day. For any Texas volleyball fans fortunate enough to be awake at midnight ET on June 30th, they were granted the opportunity to relive the 2022 and 2023 national championship documentaries produced by ESPN and the Longhorn Network. SECN closed out the day showing a replay of the 2023 sweep victory over Nebraska to boot.
Austin, Texas and the UT campus are obviously never ones to miss out on a party. University president Jay Hartzell, athletic director Chris Del Conte, and chairman of the board of regents Kevin Eltife made sure to mark the occasion as only Texas can with the on-campus “SEC Celebration” dominating the South Mall on Sunday afternoon. With the assistance of some performance-enhancing energy drinks, surely, Eltife in particular made sure to bring the volume and excitement to the event during a supercharged speech ahead of Mr. Worldwide/Mr. 305/Pitbull himself.
Django Walker debuted an updated version of his fan-favorite song, “Texas Longhorn”, and fans on TV got to hear from all of the head coaches of the various Texas athletics programs including Jerritt Elliott and beach volleyball top dog Stein Metzger. The SEC Network heavily featured do-it-all superstar alumna Logan Eggleston during the intro to their SEC Now show from the scene. Who among us could honestly say they weren’t fired up by the whole event?
And then a bunch of you got into fights, broke barricades, and tried to Astroworld each other. Can’t win ‘em all, I guess.
In Part I, we discussed Texas’ first four opponents on the 2024 volleyball schedule: Wisconsin, Minnesota, Indiana, and Miami (FL). All four opponents are power conference members. The first three are from the best top-to-bottom volleyball conference in the country, the Big Ten. All but Indiana made the postseason in 2023. It’s anything but an easy start for the Longhorns, and the remainder of their non-conference schedule is anything but a cakewalk with one blueblood, two very familiar in-state foes, and a non-P4 team that made their way to the second round of the NCAA tournament.
Houston Cougars
2023 Record: 19-10 (11-7)
NCAA Tournament: #8 seed, lost to Stanford in the Palo Alto regional final
Postseason Rank: #21
Result v Texas: L/L, 1-3 (21-25, 25-17, 23-25, 17-25)/0-3 (10-25, 19-25, 23-25)
Despite the record, the Cougars were a good team in 2023. While their tournament run ended in only the second round, they went down in five sets to #1 seed Stanford in Palo Alto, nearly completing the reverse sweep along the way. Due to the Big 12’s in-conference scheduling, Texas and Houston faced off twice in 2023, playing seven total sets with the Horns dropping only one.
Houston returns major pieces from their 2023 squad including one of their two primary setters, Annie Cooke. On the back row, upperclassman libero Kate Georgiades is still in H-Town after leading the team in digs. The team leader in blocks in 2023, middle blocker Kellen Morin will be a senior on this Cougars squad looking to build on a strong campaign.
The Cougars will be without their top two offensive weapons from last season, however. Pin hitters Kenna Sauer and Abbie Jackson have both graduated from the program after registering more than 350 kills each in 2023. Transfer outside Angela Grieve figures to be a big part of the Houston offense in 2024 after a 280 kill campaign as a member of the Miami (FL) program. Pepperdine transfer Avery Shimaitis also figures to be the second arm in the Cougar attack in her return to her home state. If Houston sticks to the 6-2 system from 2023, Gardner-Webb transfer setter Paige Bernstein figures to slot into the second spot behind Cooke as well.
While the Longhorns’ middle blocking corps will have a moment to breathe against a Houston offense that will likely still be settling in with so many new faces, the Texas pins will be facing a Cougar block and defense that is loaded with high level experience and familiarity with the Longhorns attack. The friendly confines of Gregory Gym should help to minimize the threat of Texas dropping more than a set in this mid-September showdown.
Stanford Cardinal
2023 Record: 29-4 (11-7)
NCAA Tournament: #1 seed, lost to Texas in the national quarterfinals
Postseason Rank: #5
Result v Texas: W/L, 3-0 (25-23, 25-20, 25-13)/1-3 (16-25, 25-15, 19-25, 22-25)
It was truly a tale of two matches for Stanford and Texas in 2023. The Cardinal throttled the Longhorns in Texas’ home opener with a convincing sweep, setting off many alarm bells in the heads of the burnt orange faithful early in the year. Texas returned the favor in Palo Alto during the NCAA tournament, making Stanford the first of three consecutive #1 seeds the Horns would take down en route to claiming their second-consecutive title.
Two-time All-Pac 12 OH Elia Rubin is still in Palo Alto and will be the focal point of the Cardinal offense in 2024. She contributed 31 kills in the seven sets Texas and Stanford played in 2023. 6’ 6” middle blocker Sami Francis, #2 on the team in blocks in 2023, is also back for Stanford to maintain a monster presence at the net. Hawaiian Elena Oglivie will continue to rock the libero uniform on the back row for the Cardinal after leading the team with just shy of 500 digs in 2023. Finally, senior setter Kami Miner is still in Palo Alto too after having recorded more than 1400 assists last season. Defensive specialist Anna Pringle will also see increased workload this year after delivering 20 aces on a team that oozed service pressure.
Opposite Kendall Kipp has finally graduated with what must now be about 18 degrees from Stanford. Kipp was the team leader in both kills (481) and service aces (an unholy 52) last year. Outside hitter Caitie Baird also completed her career last season after being #3 on the team in kills and contributing 37 aces of her own. Pin depth behind Rubin will be up for grabs in a battle between sophomore Julia Blyashov and redshirt freshman Ipar Kurt. At the middle blocker spot, Sami Francis will likely be joined by graduate transfer Charity McDowell, team leader in blocks at rival Notre Dame in 2023. The Cardinal also added two freshmen middle blockers in this year’s recruiting class, both clocking in at a minimum of 6’ 4”.
As a blueblood, it should come as no surprise that Stanford lacks glaring weaknesses in 2024. This is a team that rightfully expects to challenge for the national championship this fall with the amount of experience and talent that will be featured on the roster. While it will be interesting from a third-party perspective to see how Stanford handles the rigors of a truly cross-country schedule having joined the Atlantic Coast Conference (friendly reminder that California is famously not on the eastern coast of the US), Texas will be catching them too early in the schedule to have been worn down by the travel yet. The Cardinal will be, without question, the biggest challenge Texas will see before the postseason in 2024. With the Wisconsin and Stanford matches both in the first two weeks of the year, the Longhorns should know a lot about where they stand in the national pecking order almost immediately this season.
Baylor Bears
2023 Record: 17-13 (10-8)
NCAA Tournament: Unseeded, lost to Kentucky in Lexington regional final
Postseason Rank: #23
Result v Texas: L/L, 2-3 (25-21, 29-27, 11-25, 11-25, 10-15), 0-3 (25-27, 19-25, 15-25)
Reverse sweeps are a hard thing to stomach on the losing end. In 2023, the Bears got to experience a super reverse sweep (terminology I, a new participant in the volleyball world, just made up). After going up 2-0 on Texas, Baylor successfully lost the next five sets in a row to Texas in two days, ultimately dropping both matches of the double header. And frankly, there aren’t too many schools in the country that are more deserving of that kind of mental and emotional beating thanks to their athletic department’s history. Gotta appreciate Jerritt’s commitment to keeping the Bears dead and buried by scheduling them again despite Texas leaving the Big 12.
Outside hitter Elise McGhee, opposite Allie Sczech, and middle blocker Manuela Bibinbe of Cameroon made up the top three kills leaders for the team in 2023. All three remain in Waco. There will be no lack of talent offensively for the Bears in 2024. On the back row, libero Lauren Briseño returns as the backbone of the Baylor defense after leading the team in digs in 2023. McGhee and Briseño were also #2 and #3 in aces for the Bears last season.
The elephant (longhorn?) in the room for this match will be transfer setter Averi Carlson. After a year of leading the team in assists and aces, the 2021 Gatorade National Player of the Year departed Baylor in favor of your two-time defending national champion Texas Longhorns. For this Bears offense to run effectively, they’ll need to figure out the situation at setter with one of freshman Emelyn Stettin, RS freshman Harley Kreck, junior Brianna Denney, or graduate transfer Jackie Barrett Frazier from Auburn. Frazier figures to be the presumptive starter after three productive seasons on the Plains, logging 1060 assists in 2023 for the Tigers. Texas fans can simply look back to last year to see how much of a challenge it can be to integrate a new setter into an otherwise stacked cast of offensive talent early in the season.
With the amount of experience the Bears are carrying on their roster this year, they absolutely remain a team capable of upsetting Texas, especially when considering that this match will be taking place in Waco rather than Austin. The transfer of Averi Carlson between the programs adds further intrigue to the in-state rivalry, so whichever team can better manage their emotions will almost certainly be the one to come out on top. I’ll take the back-to-back champs in front of what’s sure to be the biggest crowd in Baylor volleyball history.
Hawai’i Rainbow Wahine
2023 Record: 24-9 (14-4)
NCAA Tournament: Unseeded, lost to Oregon in Eugene regional final
Postseason Rank: Receiving Votes
Result v Texas: N/A
Hawai’i is the…uh…weakest opponent on the non-conference schedule for 2024. At least on paper anyway. It isn’t until the eighth match of the year that Texas plays its first (and only!) scheduled non-Power 4 conference opponent. I debated for quite some time whether the 24-win tournament team or the 21-win Big Ten team was the “worst” of the non-conference opponents for Texas, speaking to the gaunlet Coach Elliott has created for his 2024 squad. The Rainbow Wahine hail from the Big West conference, being one of the final Division I schools within shouting distance of the Pacific Ocean that seems to still have some modicum of a grasp on basic geography. The ladies from the islands put together an impressive 2023 campaign, managing to even upset Iowa State in the first round of the NCAA tournament in impressive fashion.
After all of the roster changes in the offseason, junior outside hitter Caylen Alexander should be the star of the Hawai’i offense after logging 319 kills last season. Fellow pin hitter Paula Guersching should expect an increase in workload this year as she looks to step up from her 129 kills in her junior year. Senior setter Kate Lang is also still on the islands. Lang led the Wahine in both digs and assists in 2023.
The biggest loss for the Rainbow Wahine is middle blocker Amber Igide. The unquestioned leader of the team, Igiede had 127 blocks, 435 kills, and 28 aces, leading Hawai’i in all categories. She will instead be looking to lead LOVB Houston in the league’s inaugural season this winter. In addition to Igiede, the Wahine lose MB Kennedi Evans, #2 on the team in blocks in 2023. Incoming freshmen Miliana Sylvester and Madeline Way will be battling it out with RS sophomore Jacyn Bamis for the two middle blocking roles at the net. Further complicating the departures for Hawai’i is the loss of experienced libero Talia Edmonds. The Michigan State transfer was third on the team in digs, so head coach Robyn Ah Mow will likely be looking to senior Tayli Ikenaga to take over the role.
Igide was the force that pushed Hawai’i into the second round of the NCAA tournament last season. With her departure as well as the loss of their libero, I anticipate a bit of a rebuilding year for the Wahine this season. They’ll be making the trip to Austin, so the travel will do a number on the fitness of the team early in the season. This will be an opportunity for the Longhorns offense to settle into their rhythm fully before beginning their conference slate one week later in College Station.
The non-conference calendar for Texas offers a strong challenge for the Horns as they look to begin the threepeat in a strong way. Jerritt Elliott has once again assembled a roster that’s more than capable of handling the schedule he’s built for them. Playing two of last year’s #1 seeds in the NCAA tournament offer opportunities for Texas to go toe-to-toe with teams of at minimum comparable talent and experience, and putting both of those matches on the road will challenge the mental resilience of the team in a big way.
Heading into conference play, it’s easy to picture Texas going anywhere between undefeated and 6-2. I believe there are three matches that could conceivably be losses for Texas if they aren’t at the top of their game right out of the blocks: Wisconsin, Stanford, and Baylor. Both the Badgers and Cardinals were #1 seeds in last season’s NCAA tournament, so there would be no shame in coming up short in hard fought battles on the road against either. In the case of Baylor, they did come close to stealing a match from Texas in Austin last season, so a raucous crowd at the Ferrell Center in the wake of the match in Palo Alto could put the Bears over the top.
Next week, we’ll start our dive into the inaugural SEC schedule for Texas volleyball! Hook ‘em!