The Road to the Regionals
The first steps towards a potential championship start this weekend in Gregory as Texas hosts the first and second round
“When you lose a couple of times, it makes you realize how difficult it is to win.”
-Steffi Graff
Alright, in the end, the SEC tournament went the way it did. While it wasn’t the most ideal outcome for the Longhorns, Texas did show some very positive trends through roughly two-and-a-half matches in the tournament. Josh covered the return (or perhaps really the first emergence) of a strong block game, despite Kentucky seeming to figure out how to counter it late in the third set of the championship match. Add in a revenge tilt against Texas A&M that went all so beautifully for the team in burnt orange, and there’s actually a lot for this squad to hang their hats on. (Burnt orange faithful truly feasted over the Thanksgiving week with volleyball’s takedown against aggy followed by a truly dominant second half by the football team against ‘little brother.’ Chef’s kiss.)
Besides, the only tournament that really matters at the end of the day has just commenced. Fresh start.
Texas drew the number three overall seed in the NCAA tournament. As expected, they fell right behind Nebraska at number one and SEC champion Kentucky at two (Pittsburgh rounded out the top four). This of course means that Austin is home to first and second round action, which kicks off tonight in Gregory Gymnasium. This marks Texas’ 42nd overall appearance in the tournament and (as a testament to Jerritt Elliott’s consistency) its 22nd straight.
Some major highlights regarding how teams got situated in the finalized bracket includes Stanford as the #2 seed in Texas’ quadrant, potentially leading to a rematch of the thrilling early-season five-setter that took place in the Moody Center back in September. Texas would have to get through some possible solid opponents in Penn State, Indiana, or maybe even a sneaky Colorado, to get that quarterfinal showdown. Stanford most likely will have to get through a good Wisconsin squad themselves.
Should Texas make it to the Final Four, there’s a strong chance they’d be facing Kentucky yet again. Kentucky’s biggest threats in their region are the two schools out of Los Angeles: UCLA and USC, both of whom Kentucky will be heavily favored against. Otherwise, Kentucky has a very clear path to their own quarterfinal matchup where they most likely will tee up against either Arizona State or Creighton (remember how Texas swept them both during the regular season?). Should another Texas/Kentucky showdown be in the cards, Longhorn fans may take solace in the old sports adage that it’s very difficult to beat the same team three times in a season. That rule applies to volleyball, right?
We will see how things shake out. With the tournament schedule being built around weekends through the month of December and assuming the Longhorns find good success, than Point Texas will keep y’all updated with weekly articles that recap prior round action while previewing Texas’s next opponents.
But first, there’s a reason the sport is played. Texas still has opening round matchups to get through this weekend, so without further ado, let’s look at what the Horns can expect.
Round One: Florida A&M (Scheduled for 7 PM CT Friday, Dec. 5th)
Apparently, the sports gods aren’t tired of Texas beating up schools with ‘A&M’ in the name, as the Longhorns drew what should be a softball for their opening round. Texas opens their 2025 tournament run against the Florida A&M (FAMU) Rattlers in the second match of Friday’s action, currently slated for a 7p CT start time (although time that could slide either way1). This will be just Texas’ fourth ever matchup against the Rattlers, with the Longhorns holding a 3-0 overall record so far in the series.
FAMU earned an autobid into the tournament thanks to winning the Southwestern Athletic Conference (SWAC) tournament. With a 9-7 conference record, FAMU ended their regular season in a three-way tie for second in the overall SWAC standings, but the Rattlers got hot at the right time and managed a run where they effectively won tie-breakers against fellow second-place squads Alabama A&M and Southern University en route to the post-season conference title.
That hot streak most likely ends tonight.
While Texas has had its struggles with blocking, FAMU hasn’t been much better, sitting at 109th nationally in blocks per set at 2.27 (an improvement on Texas in this category by only 0.2). Texas’ winning formula has been in solid backline defense to support inefficiencies in blocking paired with an outstanding offense that can attack equally from the left and right sides.
FAMU lacks these or other advantages. Middle blocker Farah Farooq serves as FAMU’s standout player with a solid .390 hitting percentage to lead the SWAC this season. This mark does beat out Texas’ most efficient hitters in Torrey Stafford at .350 and Ayden Ames at .386, but let’s not kid ourselves: efficiency only goes so far. How does it translate to actual points? Nowhere near Texas sitting at only 14.88 kills per set - you know, an okay number, I guess. What’s that? That leads all of Division I? Oh, right.
FAMU matches Texas also with weaknesses in serving, with just 180 aces on the season, just good enough for 81st overall in the NCAA. Yes, we know Texas has issues in this department as well, but again, Texas’ whole game this season has been in a highly efficient and devastating offensive blitz that typically overwhelms any defensive strengths of opponents. While we have bemoaned the issues in blocking and serving all season, Texas has mostly not needed strong performances in these departments against weaker opponents. The Longhorns are surely banking on this fact on Friday as they take on the Rattlers.
Tied in with the (hopefully continued) improvement in the block game, Texas should be back in the swing of things both figuratively and literally by the close of Friday’s double-header in Gregory. What follows on Saturday may be a good litmus test of Texas’ ability to go the distance in the tournament.
Round Two: Winner of Penn State/University of South Florida (Scheduled for 6:30 PM CT Saturday, Dec. 6th)
Fans of the Horns know just how difficult it is to defend a national championship, as Texas’ dreams of a fabled three-peat were ended in the regional round against a pesky Creighton squad last season. That Creighton team would then go on to lose to the eventual national champions: Penn State. Now the Nittany Lions are attempting their own defense of that title, although their season has seen more of a falloff than Texas’ did in their 2024 campaign.
Still, tonight marks Penn State’s 45th-straight (yes, straight, as in consecutive - that’s every single tournament since the postseason gauntlet’s inception) appearance in the NCAA tournament, and the Nittany Lions still finished the regular season at a respectable 18-12 and managed to end the year ranked at number 25. Still, it is surely not a happy fact to most Penn State fans that this is their first time not hosting the first and second rounds at home since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1998 (oh, and also that they didn’t have a football coach by National Signing Day).
Penn State’s schedule was nothing to be laughed at. Despite a so-so record, Penn State earned their at-large bid through a gauntlet that included wins against #12 Creighton, #14 Kansas, #17 USC, and #7 Wisconsin (rankings from the time of Penn State’s matches). Unfortunately for Nittany Lions fans, Penn State also fell to #13 Arizona State, #24 TCU, #4 Kentucky, #5 Pitt, #9 Purdue, #20 Minnesota, and finally #1 Nebraska. To add insult to injury, Izzy Starck was still with the team in some of those early successes - now she’s shopping the transfer portal while her old squad suits up. Texas certainly had and was successful in their own tough schedule, but Penn State’s road was not any easier. Don’t let their record fool you.
Penn State’s offense is still very potent, coming in third overall in the Big 10 with 13.64 kills per set. Junior opposite Kennedy Martin leads that attack, with the 2024 All-American racking up 596 kills over the season on a .321 hitting percentage. Sophomore outside hitter Emmi Sellman will try to improve her disappointing .165 hitting percentage as the team’s number two attacker. Even with some misfires, Sellman was able to put together a decent count of 243 kills on the year. As for middles, senior (and eight tournament match veteran) middle blocker Maggie Mendelson boasts the Nittany Lions’ best hitting percentage at .374, managed 226 kills herself, and helped manage Penn State’s defense at the net with 88 blocks.
Senior libero Gillian Grimes serves as the heartbeat of this squad and as its seasoned vet, with 12 tournament matches under her belt. While some of her numbers are down from her championship-worthy 2024 campaign, she still managed a solid 3.68 digs per set, 103 total assists, and 28 aces.
Penn State certainly presents as Texas’ most balanced and experienced potential opponent this weekend, and had they seen a slightly more favorable schedule this year, they may have found themselves with much better seeding in the tournament. Should the Longhorns face the Nittany Lions on Saturday, Texas will have to bring their A-game. This is my match to watch for determining Texas’ floor for this tournament; if the Horns can make quick work of a proud Penn State squad, especially through a clean game with improved blocking, then the Final Four or better is most certainly in play. Anything less, and Texas - should they survive and make it to the regional round - may find themselves in close fights through the rest of December.
As for the University of South Florida (USF), their 17-12 overall record was good enough for a second-place finish in the American Athletic Conference (American) for the regular season and their first NCAA tournament bid since 2002. USF made it to the semifinals of the American post-season tournament after earning a bid to that tournament off a 12-4 conference record. USF’s loss count came from facing some heavy-hitters in their out-of-conference schedule, including losses to Tennessee, #12 Florida, #13 Minnesota, #18 Creighton, and #17 Kansas (all ranks from the time of USF’s matches). The shared opponents with Penn State in Creighton and Kansas - two matches Penn State won - should probably make Bulls fans nervous.
Even with some tough losses in a certainly tough non-conference gauntlet, USF showed its ability to take on Power 4 contenders as well. In their home invitational tournament in early September, USF was able to notch back-to-back wins against South Carolina and Florida State. The Bulls will no doubt be hoping they can reenact that weekend run this weekend in Austin.
If USF manages to make it to Saturday, they’ll be counting on a career-capping performance from outside hitter Maria Claira Andrade. The senior has had an outstanding season for the Bulls, averaging 4.41 kills per set on a respectable .266 hitting percentage, while remarkably coming in second on her squad in digs per set. Moreover, Andrade serves as the team’s emotional leader. Her older brother unexpectedly passed away last season, and Maria was not able to attend the funeral - which took place in her home of Brazil - in person. She managed to fight through the pain and adversity that experience brought and landed the American Player of the Year award for 2024.
She carried that tenacity into this season, earning her second-straight American Player of the Year award. If Texas ends up facing the Bulls in the second round, they’ll have to contain Andrade, hopefully with a continuation of the blocking we saw in the SEC tournament. Otherwise, USF’s .245 hitting percentage misses the mark when compared with Texas’ efficiency on offense, and the Bulls’s 225 blocks on the season ranked in the lower half of the American.
Should Texas contain Andrade while maintaining a strong offensive game out of at least two of their major threats between Abby Vander Wal, Torry Stafford, and Cari Spears, then USF’s first trip to the postseason tournament in 23 years should come to an early end.
Other Notes and Matches of Interest this Weekend
The tournament started on Thursday, December 4th. As of the time of this writing, #7 seeded Tennessee lost to unseeded Utah State, #5 BYU lost to unseeded Cal Poly, and #6 UTEP lost to unseeded North Carolina in the first upsets of the tournament.
#4 Indiana and #5 Colorado face off at 5 PM CT on Friday, December 5th to determine the opponent of the winner of this weekend’s slate of matches in Austin.
#1 Kentucky faces a tough #8 UCLA squad that took down Penn State three sets to one this season. That match is scheduled for 6 PM CT on Friday, December 5th.
NCAA Tournament start times are “sliding,” meaning later matches in a session begin shortly (often 30 minutes) after the previous match ends, not at fixed clock times, though they’re usually clustered in blocks (e.g., 4 PM, 5:30 PM, 7:30 PM slots) for first/second rounds at host sites on ESPN+, while the semifinals (Dec 18) and finals (Dec 21) have set national TV slots (ESPN/ABC).